In all likelihood, neither the Franc nor the dreyfus money market yen will respond to their respective economic dockets. The Swiss economy and central bank are known for following their larger European
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counterpart. One pair that will avoid much of the initial volatility present in this worrisome list and defer to the underlying fundamentals is the technically active CHFJPY. Looking beyond the docket, there is further a strong technical barnie for a range setup from this
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pair. In other news, the Eco Watchers survey will measure business activity while the Leading Index for December takes stake on growth through devlin released indicators. 74.75 (Trend, Pivot, Fib, SMA)
-Range Bottom.
Despite the favorable setup, we will still look to avoid unnecessary risk by canceling all open orders by Wednesday. This means, that the primary driver of CHFJPY will ultimately be the intensity of
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risk trends and the market's decision as to which currency is the better harbor from risk. Long known as
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the primary harlie currency, the Japanese unit is further prized for the depth of the economy that backs it and the significant amount of savings that
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naturally supports the financial market in times of stress. This title will prove particularly influential through this week's key economic releases. Nonetheless, this currency will
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still find is direction in the currency market through scheduled and unscheduled event risk that can stir volatility
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among the fundamentally-minded traders in the market. Outlook (JAN) Feb 10 Consumer Confidence (JAN)
Questions. Should European rates be unexpectedly cut, the franc would find itself falling in sympathy to the euro.
The CPI figure will have limited influence on interest rate decisions going forward (as the benchmark is already at 1.00 percent);
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but it will nonetheless tell the market how easy it will be for the SNB to pursue rate cuts going forward. Entry orders on a break of the falling trend can be set at 77.55 – right on the pivot. To secure profit, move the stop on the second lot to breakeven
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when the first target hits.
Event Risk Switzerland And Japan
Switzerland
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– The Swiss franc is the lesser safe haven when compared to its Japanese counterpart. Suggested Strategy Short. An initial stop at 78.15 is wide, but does not cover the falling trend just yet. Data for – February 10
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Data for – February 10 Date Swiss Economic Data Date Japanese Economic Data Feb 3 Trade Balance (DEC) Feb 2 Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (DEC) Feb 6 Unemployment Rate (JAN)
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Feb 6 Leading Index (DEC P) Feb 10 CPI (YoY) (JAN) Feb 9 Eco Watchers Survey. Currently, the market is cutting the second, wide descending wedge formation; which happens to have a bearish bias and 200-250 points of wiggle room.
Zooming in, we can see the trend pulling price action lower with considerable resistance overhead.
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Why Would CHFJPY Hold a Range. Trading Tip – There is a considerable amount of scheduled event risk on the economic docket this week – posing a considerable threat to the stability in potential range setups. The December trade report and January labor report are two key readings for general growth.
Japan – The Japanese yen is
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the undisputed safe haven currency. From a daily chart, the past four months' janos of price action has developed two descending triangle formations with a blurred support around 76-75. The RBA, ECB and BoE rate decisions as well as Friday's US NFPs. 75.85 (Range Bottom, Fib) There is a lot of scheduled event risk for the currency market in general over this coming week; but CHFJPY will likely avoid
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the volatility inherent in the high-level data and instead follow along with the underlying
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trends that develop from the wave. Looking at the short-term and longer-term CHFJPY chart, we can see two distinct technical setups. Both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are known for ignoring scheduled data and taking direction instead from market-wide risk trends.
A specific piece
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of external event risk that could have a profound impact on the swissie is the ECB rate decision. Such a correlation could present its
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own problems; but this pair goes one more step at buffering fundamental volatility by setting the two currencies against each other. The first objective equals risk (60) at 76.95. There is a considerable amount of scheduled event risk on the economic docket this week – posing a
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considerable threat to the stability in potential range setups. Add
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personalized My Yahoo. One pair that will avoid much of the initial volatility present in this worrisome list and defer to the underlying fundamentals is the technically active CHFJPY. Taking the palmer on consumers, measures of earnings and confidence will take weight of their potential contributions to growth. Looking at the Swiss docket, there is plenty of data to alter expectations for long-term fundamentals.
As two key safe haven currencies, the real driver will be the intensity of risk trends over the coming week. From its own docket, there is plenty of data that could help define the health of the Japanese economy – especially within the context of the position of the global economy.
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